Market commentary and analysis

11/17/2004 Back to the moon? Weekly chart of Nasdaq Composite with Elliott wave counting

Market Commentary Archive 2000-2001

• Head and Shoulders in Nasdaq and S&P
  It looks like Nasdaq will go to 1000 mark and S&P to 600-650 range
• Rescue Money at work
  About 300B dollars were printed after terrorists attack. Now this money starts to talk ...
• Stock market valuations and interest rates
  Central Banks have great influence in normal environments, during the manias they fail to control ...
• Nasdaq : A re-test of April's lows is imminent
  The important level of 1900 was easily broken and now serves as resistance...
• Nasdaq : Approaching historically worst season
  According to Yale Hirsch study September-October months is the worst period to be invested in high tech market
• Looking at Nasdaq large companies charts
  Nasdaq leaders BRCM, NXTL, INTC, YHOO and ORCL all exhibit the same pattern : indecision of investors
• S&P 500 Index : Nearing 0.618 retracement level
  If we violate this level to the downside, chances are that we gonna re-test the April's 2001 lows again
• Nasdaq : 3-day reversal pattern worked again ... but a day later
  Nasdaq daily setup observed at major pivotal tops since March 2000
• Insiders selling hi techs at record pace
  Selling directors now exceed buyers by a factor of five to one ...
• S&P 500 : Short term support at 1170 to 1190 levels
  ... toppish pattern in a quite bearish market environment
• Powerful 3-day reversal pattern in Nasdaq
  It consists of a Doji day, Long White Body and a Shooting Star candlesticks
• Nasdaq at the critical juncture
  Bearish divergence between price and Relative Strength Indicator ...
• Nasdaq: Resistance at 2300 to 2400 expected
  Don't be too optimistic about this bear rally
• We are still in a great secular bull market !
  Nasdaq monthly chart shows that the up trend is still not broken ...
• Nasdaq Expecting a short term bounce
  A rally if materialized could bring Nasdaq to ~2350 ...
• Fed under cross fire
  ... the interest rates can't go lower than 3.50% any time soon
• Nasdaq vs Nikkei comparison revisited
  ... analogy between Nasdaq and Nikkei charts gave us the right scenario for Nasdaq direction
• Is it The Bottom ?
  ... sell short on price violating the blue trend line near 1920 level
• Down profit target achieved . We cover our shorts
  ... we don't see any reason for Nasdaq to go higher than 2200 mark
• Analyzing major stock market indices ratios
  Nasdaq to S&P 500 ratio has come closer to its normal historical levels ...
• All three major indices are in a bear market now
  While not sure about DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index are for sure ...
• Market expectations are too high ...
  Federal Funds Futures is pricing in 72% chance of super-aggressive 75 bp rate cut ...
• S&P 500 is still extremely overpriced
  Stock market valuation analysis based on P/E ratio and Fed funds yield
• Nasdaq: Another 200 to 300 points decline expected
  This is one of the cases when the chart speaks itself
• US market peaks and troughs over past 75 years
  By historical valuation standards we are still overvalued
• S&P 500 : Still far from its normal historical valuations...
  Applying technical analysis to S&P 500 P/E multiple chart
• GE to drop to 35 ?
  OBV indicator shows a clear distribution phase on General Electric stock
• Philip Morris is on the track again
  Using Philip Morris stock as an idicator of the public sentiment
• Perfect Head and Shoulders top in MWD
  Volume confirms the well known pattern ...
• When Abby says "Buy" , I am selling more...
  Another attempt to persuade new unaware investors ...
• New lows in CSCO stock expected
  Analysts still sell the public an idea of "a great buying opportunity" ...
• Nasdaq: The most profitable trading strategy these days
  Short answer is "Selling short", but doing that smartly
• Very bearish report from Hoisington Investment Management
  Stock market and fundamental economic analysis
• DJIA classical diamond chart formation
  Continuation or Reversal this time?
• Nasdaq Composite : 2650 is very important level to watch
  122 point down day just after powerful 50 bp rate cut!
• Fed action in the 30s and nowdays
  Will Alan Greenspan save the markets by aggressive interest cuts?
• Will the market drop below 2K level now?
  Remarkable analogy with Japanese Nikkei index
• Time for bottom fishing?
  ...chances are that we'll have some sort of the bounce right here
• Getting more bullish on Nasdaq ...
  Nasdaq is probably going to regain about a half of its recent losses
• Market Commentary: Nearing a panic sell-off ...
  Current sell-off is nearing the final capitulation phase
• Nasdaq : Gigantic Head and Shoulders pattern
  Down target 2100 for hi tech index
• Are we still in a bull market ...?
  If the market situation worsens father, we don't think we can go much lower than 2200 level
• Will EMC hold its winning UP trend?
  ... there're reasons to be bearish on EMC
• Interesting observation on Nasdaq chart similarity to Nikkei crash
  If this analogy is right Nasdaq can easily plunge to below 2000 mark, stock market crash 1929 overview
• History repeating ...
  A perfect symmetrical double top pattern in Nasdaq Composite
• Double top pattern suggests an imminent correction
  Bearish divergence between Momentum Oscillator and price is confirming our guess...
• Trader's psychology
  ...the key for successful trading is my own discipline
• Is Nasdaq correction over?
  ...we have probably hit a medium term bottom here.
• Why we buy or sell...
  Rumors, rumors, rumors...